The UK's Brexit journey has been a rollercoaster of emotions and decisions, and now, a decade after the initial referendum, the conversation has shifted to a surprising direction: rejoining the European Union. This isn't just a random idea; it's a complex and intriguing prospect that could shape the UK's future in profound ways. So, what's the deal with this potential U-turn, and why is it making headlines? Let's dive in and explore the possibilities, the challenges, and the implications of this unexpected turn of events.
The Rejoining Debate: A New Special Relationship?
The idea of rejoining the EU has been floating around for a while, but it's now gaining momentum, thanks to figures like Wes Streeting, a former health secretary and potential Labour leadership contender. Streeting's suggestion of a 'new special relationship' with the EU is an intriguing concept, but it's not without its complexities. Personally, I think this debate is fascinating because it challenges the notion that Brexit was an irreversible decision. What makes this particularly intriguing is the potential for a fresh start, free from the constraints of the past. However, the question remains: is it too soon for such a move?
The Moonshot: Full-Fat EU Membership
The most ambitious option is a full-fat return to the EU. This would be a significant political and logistical undertaking. While a referendum isn't legally required, it would be a desirable political move. To succeed, a referendum would likely need to show overwhelming support, possibly closer to 70%, to ensure a solid mandate. The EU, however, might be hesitant to initiate accession talks without a strong guarantee of commitment. Remember, the political energy required for accession is immense, and many member states may prioritize other critical issues, like supporting Ukraine and Moldova.
A recent survey by Best for Britain revealed that over 80% of those planning to vote for Labour, Liberal Democrats, or Greens support rejoining the EU, but only 53% of the entire electorate share this sentiment. This discrepancy highlights the challenge of gaining widespread public support. Even if the UK could secure a massive majority in favor, the technical-level talks would be intense, starting with the unravelling of the withdrawal agreement, which covered Northern Ireland, citizens' rights, and the divorce bill.
The Swiss-Style Halfway House
Switzerland, a non-EU member, has a unique arrangement that could serve as a model for the UK. Last year, Switzerland secured a deal that provides 'frictionless access' to the single market, access to the EU's electricity market, space programs, Erasmus, and the Digital Europe research program, while participating in the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. In exchange, Switzerland agreed to free movement of people and paid €375 million annually into the EU's funds. This arrangement, however, was rejected by Boris Johnson due to its requirement for regulatory alignment and free movement.
The Norway-Style Halfway House
Another option is for the UK to rejoin the single market through membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), which was also previously rejected by Starmer. Norway, Liechtenstein, and Iceland, which are part of the EEA, could be a potential model. To join the EEA, the UK would first need to negotiate membership of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and accept free movement. This option provides a more gradual approach, allowing the UK to gradually align with EU standards while maintaining some autonomy.
Status Quo: Ready, Steady, Reset
The status quo approach, advocated by Keir Starmer, involves a bit-by-bit alignment with the EU. This strategy was seen as politically expedient two years ago, but it may not be enough to address the concerns raised by Brexit. The UK remains cautious about how a deal will be perceived publicly, especially regarding immigration. Critics argue that this approach will have minimal impact on the economy or the damage caused by Brexit. In my opinion, this strategy feels like a half-hearted attempt to address the issues, and it may not provide the necessary momentum for meaningful change.
New Ideas and the Swiss Deal
The Swiss deal is an intriguing example of how the EU can be open to innovative solutions. It shows that Brussels is willing to invest political and executive energy in maintaining and updating agreements with third countries. This flexibility is essential for adapting to changing circumstances. However, it also highlights the challenges of finding a middle ground that satisfies all parties involved. The Swiss model, while successful, may not be easily replicable for the UK due to its unique relationship with the EU.
The Way Forward: A Complex Journey
The UK's journey towards rejoining the EU is a complex and multifaceted process. It requires careful consideration of political, economic, and social factors. The Swiss-style deal, while appealing, may not be the only solution. The Norway-style approach, on the other hand, offers a more gradual path to alignment. The status quo, while politically convenient, may not provide the necessary impetus for change. As an expert, I believe that the UK's future lies in finding a balance between autonomy and integration, and the rejoining debate is a crucial step in that direction. It's a fascinating time for the UK, and the world, as we witness the potential for a new chapter in the Brexit saga.
