Inflation concerns have shifted focus to the U.S. dollar, with economists emphasizing rising interest rates driven by geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. According to TD Securities, higher Treasury yields now align with headlines about Middle East conflicts and anticipated supply shortages, prompting analysts to pivot attention toward April's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The forecast suggests core CPI will print above consensus at 0.38% m/m, while headline CPI remains firm at 0.56% m/m, fueled by shelter adjustments, energy prices, and airfare surges. Core goods should see modest tariff passes, though headline inflation may stabilize further as gasoline prices continue to rise. This shift signals a broader trend toward volatility in global monetary policy, with experts cautioning that continued uncertainty could reshape long-term interest rate dynamics.
